Iran’s Regime: Survival and the Transformation of Its Mechanisms
The war has weakened five of the six mechanisms that sustained Iran’s regime. It will likely survive the next six to nine months, increasingly dependent on the Revolutionary Guards.
Closed Straits Strategy: From Gallipoli to Hormuz
1915 Gallipoli and 2026 Hormuz share the same structural sequence: naval campaign against a littoral power, closed strait, ground deployment. What could be some lessons from the 1915 operation and what are the forecast for the 2026 one.
U.S. Engagement in Latin America: a Global Repositioning or a Transactional Approach
Recent U.S. tariff actions in Latin America function primarily as short-cycle bargaining tools rather than components of a unified hemispheric trade framework. Increased U.S. activity in Latin America aligns with a transactional foreign-policy operating model rather than a reallocation of strategic focus away from other regions.
Country Risk Analysis: Lebanon after the 2024 Ceasefire
A historic moment for Lebanon: from collapse to recovery, if it seizes the chance. This analysis traces the road to collapse and outlines the narrow path to sovereignty, stability, and reform."