G² Forecasting Tool
Mapping the trajectory of inter-state relations.
A structured framework for assessing and rating how relationships between states evolve over time, combining historical trend analysis with political, sociopolitical, and strategic indicators.
What It Is
A rating framework for geopolitical trajectories.
Most political risk tools tell you where things stand. The G² Forecasting Tool is designed to tell you where things are going.
It focuses on inter-state relationships, examining bilateral dynamics across time: shifts linked to leadership change, national grievances & narratives, and policy direction. By structuring these variables into a comparative rating framework, it extrapolates likely trajectories in state behavior and relations.
Key Variables
Leadership
Assessment of how the change in leadership, timing, and cycles, shifts the trajectory of inter-state relations.
National Grievances & Narratives
Tracking the national grievances and narratives that shape state relations, linking domestic policies to foreign behavior.
Three Main Sectors
Rating the evolution of bilateral relations through a policy lens, focusing on Diplomacy, Military, and Economic, to identify the trend.
How It Works
Structured variables,
comparative ratings.
The tool structures political, sociopolitical, and strategic variables into a comparative rating framework, enabling consistent, repeatable assessment of country standing and relationship stability across time and geographies.
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Political, sociopolitical, and specific indicators (diplomatic, military, economic) are mapped and weighted for each bilateral relationship under assessment, since 1995.
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Variables are structured into a comparative rating framework, producing a relationship score for each period, correlated with the change of leadership and grievance to identify trends.
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By combining the identified historical trend to the cycle of leadership change and grievances, forecast how the interstate relation will change and what are some inflection points.
Who It Serves
Built for those who
act on geopolitical intelligence.
Investment
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Assessing political risk trajectories for portfolio exposure in volatile bilateral relationships.
Corporate
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Anticipating shifts in the political environment for market entry, operations, and supply chain decisions.
Research
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A structured, replicable framework for comparative geopolitical analysis and academic research.
Policy
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Supporting policy decision making with evidence-based trajectory assessments.
International
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Providing structured geopolitical intelligence to support multilateral decision-making and negotiations.
In Development
Building it with
those who need it.
The G² Forecasting Tool has entered a pilot stage, with methodologies and indicators being tested and refined. We welcome collaboration with institutions interested in contributing to, testing, or applying this framework, in an advisory or research context.
If your institution operates in an environment where trajectory matters more than snapshot, we'd like to hear from you.