G² Forecasting Tool
Mapping the trajectory of geopolitical risk.
A data-driven system for indexing, rating, and forecasting how countries and their relationships evolve over time, combining historical data, quantitative modeling, and expert analysis.
What It Is
A system for geopolitical trajectories.
Most political risk tools tell you where things stand. The G² Forecasting Tool is designed to tell you where things are going.
It does this through two outputs:
G² Country Risk, indexing, rating, and forecasting political stability and risk at the country level.
G² Inter-State Relations, indexing, rating, and forecasting the trajectory of bilateral relationships between states.
Both draw from the same underlying system: historical data mapped across time, structured around leadership cycles, national grievances and narratives, and political, sociopolitical, and strategic indicators, to identify trends, inflection points, and likely trajectories.
Key Variables
Leadership
How changes in leadership, timing, and cycles shift political stability and state behavior, at the country level and in bilateral relations.
National Grievances & Narratives
The domestic grievances and narratives that drive both internal instability and foreign policy behavior.
Political, Economic & Military Indicators
The three lenses through which trajectories are assessed, capturing governance, economic stress, and security dynamics over time.
How It Works
From data to forecast.
The G² system collects and processes country-level data, structures it into a comparative rating framework, and produces forward-looking trajectories, consistently and repeatably, across time and geographies.
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Political, sociopolitical, and strategic indicators are gathered and mapped at the country level, covering leadership cycles, grievances, and diplomatic, military, and economic dynamics, since 1995.
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Variables are weighted and structured into a comparative rating framework, producing scores for each period. These are correlated with leadership change and grievance cycles to identify trends and inflection points.
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By combining historical trends with leadership and grievance cycles, the system forecasts where a country's stability is heading and how its bilateral relationships will evolve.
Who It Serves
Built for those who
act on geopolitical intelligence.
Investment
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Assessing country risk and bilateral trajectories to manage portfolio exposure in politically volatile markets.
Corporate
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Anticipating shifts in political stability and bilateral dynamics for market entry, operations, and supply chain decisions.
Research
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A rigorous, replicable system for comparative geopolitical analysis and academic research.
Policy
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Supporting policy decisions with evidence-based assessments of country risk and inter-state trajectories.
International
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Providing structured geopolitical intelligence to inform multilateral decision-making and negotiations.
In Development
Building it with
those who need it.
The G² Forecasting Tool is in active development, with data pipelines, quantitative models, and analytical methodologies being built, tested, and refined. We welcome collaboration with institutions interested in contributing to, applying, or stress-testing the system, in an advisory or research capacity.
If your institution operates in an environment where trajectory matters more than snapshot, we'd like to hear from you.