Geopolitical Forecasting Tool
GéoPoly Global is developing a forecasting tool designed to assess the trajectory of international security and geopolitical relations.
The tool focuses on inter-state relationships, combining historical trend analysis with political and sociopolitical indicators to evaluate how relations between countries evolve over time. It examines past and current dynamics in bilateral, including shifts linked to leadership change, national grievances, strategic narratives, and policy direction.
By structuring these variables into a comparative rating framework, the tool aims to extrapolate likely trajectories in state behavior and relations. This enables assessment of country standing, relationship stability or deterioration, and the probability of escalation or strategic realignment.
How this tool supports clients and market operations
Forecasting risks: potential security threats and geopolitical shocks
Identify opportunities
Support investment decision-making
This work is ongoing
The tool has entered a pilot stage, with methodologies and indicators being tested and refined. GéoPoly Global welcomes collaboration with institutions interested in contributing to, testing, or applying this framework in an advisory or research context.