Dispatches: The Question of The Venezuelan Regime Change.
Key Notes
Maduro’s removal seems to constitute a structural break, but not an imminent regime collapse. Power remains concentrated among regime-adjacent elites and the armed forces, making elite cohesion, rather than popular legitimacy, the primary determinant of short-term stability.
U.S. signaling suggests a preference for a managed transition over an opposition-led rupture. By sidelining María Corina Machado, Washington is prioritizing governability and military acquiescence, even at the cost of limiting the scope of immediate political change.
The military’s swift backing of Delcy Rodríguez positions her administration as a continuity-stabilization vehicle. The most likely outlook is a controlled transition with selective accountability, gradual sanctions adjustment, and constrained reform capacity in the near term.
Development
On the night of January 3, 2026, Caracas was shaken by explosions at strategic locations across the South American capital, targeting military installations and symbolic Chavista sites, including former President Chávez’s mausoleum. Thirty-two Cuban soldiers were killed during the operation.
The strikes were carried out by U.S. aircraft, which were able, under highly suspicious circumstances, to penetrate Venezuelan airspace with ease, capture and remove the head of state, and exit the country without encountering significant resistance or effective pursuit.
A period of uncertainty regarding who was leading the country followed. This uncertainty deepened after a press conference held by President Trump and Marco Rubio, during which the United States confirmed that Nicolás Maduro had been removed from office and announced that it would temporarily oversee the country and its resources, particularly oil revenues.
Trump also stated that the former Chavista establishment could not continue governing Venezuela, while simultaneously arguing that opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado was not suitable to lead the nation, claiming that she lacked support from the entire country, further contributing to the political ambiguity.
This ambiguity ended hours later when President Trump confirmed that he was backing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, former minister of foreign affairs and former head of Venezuela’s intelligence service, SEBIN. Despite earlier warnings that a second strike could be considered should Rodríguez fail to align with U.S. interests, Trump later stated that she had remained in contact and had guaranteed cooperation with U.S. authorities. He further added, “We will soon determine whether the existing sanctions against her will remain in place or be lifted.”
Mrs. Rodríguez also received the backing of Venezuela’s key actor for political stability: the armed forces. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López publicly endorsed the new political status quo and called on the population to resume normal activities, stating, “The homeland continues.”
Analysis
Despite the initial popular joy following the capture of the Venezuelan dictator, the subsequent steps taken by the United States appeared improvised. This stemmed from the fact that President Trump’s initial statements did not clarify who would assume leadership in Venezuela. As a result, the risk of a power vacuum was initially significant.
Venezuela’s repressive apparatus is composed not only of the regular armed forces but also of informal civilian militias, commonly known as colectivos. If uncertainty had persisted over time, or if María Corina Machado had been appointed to lead the country without the backing of key veto players, particularly the military, the likelihood of political instability would have been unacceptably high.
This is why, the day after Maduro’s removal from office, the United States decided to move forward by cooperating with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who, by virtue of her role, had previously served as head of SEBIN, the fearsome Venezuelan intelligence system trained by the Cubans. She had also been Maduro’s minister of foreign affairs. This career trajectory within Chavismo grants her the capacity to secure the backing of key veto players, thereby providing the stability the United States needs to begin renegotiating oil resources with the new Venezuelan government. Furthermore, Rubio stated that María Corina Machado and other opposition leaders had spent sufficient time outside Venezuela to command this level of support or to guarantee political stability.
Forecast
If the new administration fails to deliver political stability or does not fully align with President Trump’s strategic oil interests, Venezuela may enter a phase of renewed and escalating instability. In such a scenario, the combination of armed militias, the deep penetration of drug trafficking networks, and the continued presence of Iranian, Cuban, Russian, and Chinese intelligence services could constitute a volatile and potentially explosive environment, one that may ultimately necessitate further U.S. military intervention.
As Marco Rubio has repeatedly emphasized, Venezuela’s opposition leadership has spent an extended period abroad and currently lacks both the institutional capacity and domestic leverage required to ensure political order. Under these conditions, the risk of asymmetric attacks, sabotage, or targeted strikes by the aforementioned actors remains extremely high, particularly during the early stages of the new administration.
Even with the backing of the armed forces, the support of key internal power brokers, and an implicit nod from the U.S. MAGA establishment, President Delcy Rodríguez faces significant challenges to consolidating authority. During the night January 5th, violent protests erupted in the streets of Caracas, directly targeting symbols of the new political order. Simultaneously, unidentified drones were reported flying over the presidential complex, underscoring the fragility of the current security environment and raising concerns about internal fractures and external interference.
Taken together, these developments suggest that Venezuela’s short-term outlook remains highly uncertain. The durability of the new administration will depend not only on military loyalty and U.S. backing, but also on its ability to neutralize irregular armed actors, contain foreign intelligence operations, and rapidly restore a minimum threshold of public order and legitimacy.
