The current moment functions as a stress test for the Cuban regime: it reveals both the limits of Havana’s external lifelines and the extent to which U.S. leverage in the hemisphere may be more consolidated than previously assumed.

Maduro’s removal seems to constitute a structural break, but not an imminent regime collapse. Power remains concentrated among regime-adjacent elites and the armed forces, making elite cohesion, rather than popular legitimacy, the primary determinant of short-term stability.

The operation in Venezuela is less about domestic regime change and more about whether the United States can still act unilaterally without triggering retaliation. The response—or lack thereof—will signal whether United States military primacy remains uncontested.