Dispatches: Chile Presidential Election: Assessing Regional Political Repercussions of Kast’s Win
Key Notes
After three attempts, former ultra-conservative deputy José Antonio Kast was elected president of Chile. His victory deepens ideological polarization across Latin America, reinforcing a left–right divide and challenging Brazil’s ambition to consolidate regional leadership amid shifting political alignments.
In the baseline scenario, Kast’s presidency strengthens coordination among right- wing governments, particularly with Argentina. However, alternative scena suggest limited regional influence if external political support, especially from the United States, weakens in the short to medium term.
The main stressor lies in the international environment: a potential defeat of Donald Trump-backed forces in U.S. midterm elections could isolate far-right governments. This would reduce diplomatic leverage, fragment regional coordination, and increase the vulnerability of these political projects.
Development
José Antonio Kast was elected president of Chile. Despite his controversial background, the son of a former Nazi soldier, a businessman, and a collaborator with the Pinochet regime, José Antonio Kast made three attempts to win Chile’s presidency. He was defeated first by Sebastián Piñera and later by the current president, Gabriel Boric, who at the outset of his administration was widely perceived as representing the ultra-left.
After four years of leftist governance, public concern in Chile has increasingly shifted toward issues of insecurity, economic stagnation, and migration. Many of these challenges were not previously central to Chilean politics, particularly before the 2019 social unrest, which marked a turning point in the country’s self-image as a nation of “order” in contrast to the rest of Latin America.
This dynamic became particularly evident after the general election, in which Jeannette Jara, the heir apparent of the Boric administration, failed to reach 30 percent of the vote. The results also delivered major surprises, including the decisive defeat of moderate right-wing figures such as Evelyn Matthei, who was outperformed even by less experienced candidates like Franco Parisi. Following Jara’s inability to consolidate support and the unexpected collapse of Matthei’s candidacy, political polling converged on a clear conclusion: the ultra- right candidate was poised for victory.
The election was also distinctive due to significant institutional changes. Traditionally, Chile operated under a voluntary voting system; however, this election marked the country’s first presidential contest held under compulsory suffrage. This shift, combined with the expansion of the electoral roll, helps explain the unusually high turnout. Kast won in all regions and became the president-elect with the largest number of votes in Chile’s history, securing just over 7.2 million ballots.
Analysis
Despite the predictable victory of the new ultra-conservative president, a deeper trend has emerged across Chile’s last two electoral cycles. The election of Gabriel Boric in the aftermath of the 2019 social unrest, followed by Kast’s victory after four years of left-wing governance, reveals two structural dynamics.
First, the institutional framework designed under General Pinochet in the post-authoritarian period has proven increasingly incapable of addressing the demands of a majority of Chileans. Long-standing mechanisms of representation and policy responsiveness no longer appear sufficient in the face of rising social expectations.
Second, Chile’s political landscape has become sharply polarized, oscillating between ideological extremes, from the far left to the far right. This pattern increasingly resembles that of neighboring Argentina, where repeated swings between extremes have generated persistent economic volatility and political uncertainty.
Historically, Chile was defined by a tradition of moderation, embodied by leaders such as Michelle Bachelet, who earned broad international recognition through her role in human rights advocacy at the United Nations, and Sebastián Piñera, who despite his controversial handling of the 2019 unrest, came to be viewed as a statesman, particularly following his tragic death in 2024.
Forecast
Kast’s election is likely to reduce Brazil’s President Lula da Silva’s room for maneuver in the region, strengthening Donald Trump’s relative influence in Latin America. A Chilean government aligned with the far right weakens Brazil’s ability to act as a political broker and consensus- builder at a moment when regional leadership is already fragmented.
Despite Lula’s long-standing reputation as a pragmatic and flexible leader, capable of engaging across ideological lines, the consolidation of right-wing governments in key countries limits his leverage. Rather than shaping the regional agenda, Brazil risks being placed on the defensive, forced to react to a shifting balance of power increasingly favorable to conservative and nationalist actors.
In this context, Chile’s realignment does not merely represent a domestic political shift, but a regional one: it complicates Brazil’s leadership ambitions, undermines left-leaning coordination mechanisms, and contributes to a broader environment in which U.S. conservative influence regains strategic relevance in Latin America.
Risks
As noted earlier, the primary risk facing the emerging right in Latin America lies in the stability of a Trump-led political project and its ability to prevail in U.S. midterm elections. A potential defeat amid rising unpopularity would significantly weaken Washington’s influence, generating instability across a region where nearly half of the governments are now politically aligned with the United States. In such a scenario, these administrations could find themselves diplomatically exposed and strategically isolated.
Furthermore, despite ideological affinity with President Javier Milei, Kast has repeatedly suggested the need to reopen discussions over Patagonia with Argentina. Any move in this direction would revive long-standing bilateral tensions, recalling the near-war of 1978–1979, which was ultimately defused through the mediation of Pope John Paul II. While an armed conflict remains highly unlikely, the reemergence of territorial disputes risks increasing diplomatic friction and nationalist posturing, undermining regional stability at a time of heightened polarization.
