Dispatches: Argentinians delivered Milei a surprising national victory.
Key Notes
Voters delivered Javier Milei and the Libertarian movement a surprising national victory, overturning expectations and defeating Peronism even in Buenos Aires Province.
Milei capitalized on anti-establishment sentiment, promoting fiscal discipline and deregulation while sidelining traditional center-right leaders like Mauricio Macri.
Consolidating alliances and maintaining economic stability will be key challenges, as Milei seeks to implement market reforms and position Argentina as Latin America’s model for a new right-wing movement.
Development: Libertarians win the National election
President Javier Milei achieved an unexpected electoral breakthrough across 16 provinces, defying early predictions and reshaping Argentina’s political landscape. The most striking upset occurred in Buenos Aires Province, where the Libertarians secured victory despite having suffered a significant setback in the provincial elections on September 7, which had favored the young Peronist governor Axel Kicillof.
In the days leading up to the election, the atmosphere was particularly unfavorable for the Libertarians. Allegations surfaced accusing their main candidate of links to narcotrafficking, a controversy that quickly gained traction in the media. The situation escalated when reports emerged of an investigation involving the U.S. judicial system, reportedly tied to a suspicious transfer of several thousand dollars. Despite these accusations, the Libertarian campaign managed to maintain its momentum, framing the claims as politically motivated attempts to undermine their surge in the polls.
The Analysis
Despite the accusations, the Libertarian president went all-in by nationalizing the election campaign, taking a considerable gamble that a defeat would trigger deep political and economic instability for his administration. The governors of Argentina’s two largest provinces, Córdoba and Santa Fe, emerged as major losers. Their attempt to form a third force to challenge national polarization backfired, as they suffered decisive defeats in their own districts, exposing the limits of their strategy.
Former president Mauricio Macri also stands among the principal losers of this electoral outcome. By maintaining a calculated distance from President Milei and avoiding a clear endorsement, anticipating a much closer race, Macri misjudged the political moment. As a result, his prospects of integrating his allies or technocratic teams into the Libertarian administration have all but vanished, weakening his influence within Argentina’s shifting political order.
Ironically, the ultimate political winner of the election may well be former president and leftist leader Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. She had long argued for separating provincial elections from the national contest, recognizing that doing so would prevent anti-Peronist forces from regrouping after potential local defeats. This debate exposed internal tensions within the movement, as the young governor Axel Kicillof sought to assert his own leadership and distance himself from his former mentor, who remains imprisoned. Following the Libertarians’ victory over Kicillof in Buenos Aires Province, Kirchner was seen celebrating from her home, reportedly joining her supporters in chants from her balcony while under house arrest.
The Forecast: Domestic Focus
This victory grants the Libertarians a strong position in Congress, allowing them to assert greater independence and resist any potential takeover by the PRO (Macri’s) Party, at least at the legislative level. The result also deepens Argentina’s political polarization. The center-right approach once embodied by former president Mauricio Macri appears to have receded, giving way to a more pronounced shift toward the far-right as the dominant pole of opposition and discourse in national politics.
Furthermore, if the Libertarians move forward with alliances with other parties, such as the PRO or the Radical Civic Union, this could enable the right to consolidate its influence and promote structural reforms aligned with its ideological agenda. Such coalitions would not only strengthen the government’s legislative leverage but could also redefine the balance of power within Argentina’s political spectrum, pushing the country further toward a pro-market and conservative reformist direction.
The Forecast: International Focus
At the international level, President Milei’s triumph consolidates the emergence of a “Trumpist” alternative in Latin America. With Argentina now under Libertarian leadership, the region gains its own laboratory for the Trump model, an experiment in populist, anti-establishment governance fused with economic liberalism. Milei’s ascent provides a counterweight to the center-left wave that has dominated regional politics since 2019, with leaders such as Gustavo Petro in Colombia, Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil. For center-right and conservative voters across Latin America, Milei’s victory offers a new reference point, one that blends ideological conviction with political defiance of the traditional order.
Risks
The main concern lies in the precedent of 2017, when Mauricio Macri secured a similarly decisive nationwide victory over Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. The initial sense of triumph within Macri’s government led to the mistaken belief that Argentina had undergone a lasting political transformation, making the Peronist comeback in 2019 all the more disruptive. Argentina’s persistently high levels of political polarization suggest that any setback in Milei’s economic program, or even an external shock, such as a potential defeat of Donald Trump in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, could generate significant tension and uncertainty around the recently announced currency swap plan backed by the US treasury. If investors feel Trump might lose power, the help the US treasury gave to Argentina might be a risk. Moreover, a Peronist resurgence would likely entail a sharp shift to the left, or at least a return to more traditional Peronist economic practices, a scenario that would unsettle markets and heighten investor anxiety about the country’s policy direction.
