The current moment functions as a stress test for the Cuban regime: it reveals both the limits of Havana’s external lifelines and the extent to which U.S. leverage in the hemisphere may be more consolidated than previously assumed.

Maduro’s removal seems to constitute a structural break, but not an imminent regime collapse. Power remains concentrated among regime-adjacent elites and the armed forces, making elite cohesion, rather than popular legitimacy, the primary determinant of short-term stability.

José Antonio Kast was elected president of Chile. His victory deepens ideological polarization across Latin America, reinforcing a left–right divide and challenging Brazil’s ambition to consolidate regional leadership amid shifting political alignments.