Political resistance to elements of the Milei administration's deregulation agenda, including Senate opposition to proposed changes to the Land Law and labor disruptions following Decree 690/2026, has constrained the pace and scope of structural reform.

The current moment functions as a stress test for the Cuban regime: it reveals both the limits of Havana’s external lifelines and the extent to which U.S. leverage in the hemisphere may be more consolidated than previously assumed.

Maduro’s removal seems to constitute a structural break, but not an imminent regime collapse. Power remains concentrated among regime-adjacent elites and the armed forces, making elite cohesion, rather than popular legitimacy, the primary determinant of short-term stability.