The US-Iran war has reordered Middle East security. With no off-ramp visible, three conflict paths diverge sharply; markets pricing only the least bad of them.

The EU's 20th sanctions package targets Russian LNG trade, banning short-term spot purchases this year and long-term contracts by January 2027. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven global LNG prices sharply higher, making EU sanctions increasingly costly for European consumers and businesses.